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London Session Brief: Broad EUR Weakness and Crypto Selloff Dominate
Session Overview
The London session carries a clear risk-off tone, with broad-based EUR selling, JPY strength across forex pairs, and heavy declines in crypto and equity indices. Volatility remains extreme in crypto and elevated in gold and indices, while major forex pairs trade within normal ranges despite directional conviction.
Key Moves
- EURCAD: Down -0.27% to 1.57374. Trending lower with confirmed daily momentum, part of broad EUR weakness across multiple crosses.
- EURJPY: Down -0.87% to 176.011. Yen strength and EUR softness combine for one of the session's cleaner directional moves.
- BTCUSD: Down -3.11% to 81,993.51. Crypto broadly lower with extreme volatility readings across the complex.
- JP225: Down -2.90% to 63,010.0. Japanese equities under pressure alongside yen strength.
- XAUUSD: Down -1.40% to 4,083.12. Gold retreating in tandem with equities, a divergence from typical haven behavior.
Notable Signals
EURCAD remains the standout active signal, a sell at 0.85 confidence currently working at +0.62R with an MFE of 0.68 and a quality score of 7.5. EURGBP's sell signal shows strong follow-through at +0.72R (MFE 0.95, confidence 0.72) ahead of tomorrow's GBP PMI release. By contrast, USDCAD and USDCHF sells are struggling, sitting at -0.05R and -0.30R respectively with limited favorable excursion so far.
Risk Sentiment
Sentiment leans risk-off. EUR weakness is broad-based across CAD, GBP, CHF and JPY crosses, consistent with a European sentiment-driven theme rather than isolated pair moves. Notably, gold is declining alongside equities and crypto rather than acting as a haven, suggesting a deleveraging dynamic with cash and JPY as the preferred shelter rather than a classic flight-to-quality rotation. USD itself is mixed, softer against JPY and CHF but firmer against EUR.
Outlook
Attention turns to the high-impact GBP Flash Manufacturing PMI on 2026-10-23 at 08:30 UTC, with EURGBP exposure worth monitoring given the pair's active sell signal and established bearish trend. EURCHF's unusually tight resistance distance (0.08 ATR) warrants caution on entry timing. With fresh H4 transitions sitting above persistent bearish daily and weekly structure in EUR crosses, the setup favors pullback-and-continue dynamics over reversal risk heading into the next session.
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