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London Session Brief: CAD Strength Persists Ahead of US GDP and ECB Decision
Session Overview
London trade is split between a risk-on tone in European equities and a risk-off undertone in crypto, with CAD the standout currency. Volatility remains contained in major FX pairs while digital assets see extreme swings. Traders are positioning ahead of a heavy afternoon calendar, including US GDP data and the ECB rate decision.
Key Moves
- DE40: Up +0.69% to 25,903.0. Grade A trending structure with strong instrument momentum confirms continued index strength.
- CADJPY: Up +0.25% to 113.054. Four consecutive bullish daily sessions with extreme bullish instrument momentum underline the CAD bid.
- DOTUSD: Down -3.72% to 0.958. Extreme volatility and a strong bearish momentum reading highlight broad crypto weakness.
- XAUUSD: Down -0.95% to 4,028.10. Gold slips despite a bullish daily trend, with instrument momentum now extreme bearish.
- EURCAD: Down -0.22% to 1.55742. Nine consecutive bearish daily sessions, but the pair is locked ahead of the ECB decision.
Notable Signals
CADJPY's active BUY signal (confidence 0.80, quality 7.5) is running at +0.57R with matching MFE, consistent with the pair's trending structure. AUDUSD holds a BUY signal (confidence 0.84, quality 7.0) but is currently underwater at -0.67R. EURCAD's SELL signal (confidence 0.72, quality 7.0) sits at +1.24R and remains structurally intact, though new entries are blocked under the pre-event lockdown until 13:15 UTC.
Risk Sentiment
Sentiment is mixed rather than uniformly risk-on or risk-off. European indices (DE40, F40, UK100, AUS200) are firmly higher, while US indices are flat to slightly lower and crypto is broadly sold off. Gold's decline alongside firmer equities points to a lack of safe-haven demand this session. CAD strength dominates the FX space while EUR, GBP, NZD, CHF and JPY sit in a quiet activity regime, limiting follow-through on new setups.
Outlook
Attention turns to the 12:30 UTC release of US Advance GDP and Core PCE, both high-impact and likely to move USD and JPY-correlated pairs. The ECB's rate decision, policy statement and press conference between 13:15 and 13:45 UTC are the session's critical events, with EUR pairs, including EURCAD, locked from new entries until the decision lands. Expect volatility to build into the European afternoon as these releases are digested.
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