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London Session Brief: Gold Extends Gains as USD Splits Ahead of Fed Decision
Session Overview
London trade opened with a cautious risk tone as markets position ahead of a heavy US data slate, including Core Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC and the Federal Reserve rate decision later today. Currency markets show a split USD picture, strengthening against CHF while easing against GBP, while gold extends its advance across all major pairings. Equity indices in Europe and the US posted marginal gains but carry a bearish underlying assessment.
Key Moves
- XAUUSD: Up +1.22% to 4,346.15. Gold extended gains across all currency pairings (XAUCHF, XAUGBP, XAUEUR also up over 1.2%), with extreme volatility readings throughout the complex.
- USDCHF: Up +0.13% to 0.81943. Six consecutive bullish daily bars and extreme bullish momentum confirm a well-established uptrend.
- USDCAD: Up +0.07% to 1.39289. Five consecutive bullish daily bars with strong bullish momentum.
- GBPUSD: Down -0.07% to 1.34671. Extreme bearish momentum persists, though the pair sits at support and is flagged as one to avoid for fresh entries.
- ADAUSD: Down -1.34% amid extreme volatility, part of a broader pullback across crypto majors including LNKUSD (-1.78%) and LTCUSD (-1.53%).
Notable Signals
Two active signals remain live. AUDNZD holds a BUY at 0.72 confidence, entered at 1.23913, currently at -0.14R with an MFE of 0.30 and a quality score of 7.0. NZDUSD carries a SELL at 0.71 confidence, entered at 0.5756, currently at -0.05R with an MFE of 0.39, also scoring 7.0. Forex conditions remain the most active area, with NZD strength driving eleven confirmed daily trends and AUDNZD, AUDUSD and EURNZD flagged as the best current setups.
Risk Sentiment
Sentiment leans neutral to cautious. Gold's broad-based advance across all denominations points to some safe-haven positioning, yet the USD is not moving uniformly, gaining against CHF while softening versus GBP, a split that reflects pre-event caution rather than a clean risk-off move. Equity indices are higher on the day but carry a bearish underlying bias in the assessment data, suggesting traders are not fully committing to the upside ahead of the Fed.
Outlook
Attention turns to US Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales m/m at 12:30 UTC, followed by the Federal Reserve rate decision at 18:00 UTC (forecast 4.00% versus 3.75% previous), the FOMC statement and economic projections, and the press conference at 18:30 UTC. USDCHF and GBPUSD both carry pre-event caution phases with reduced confidence and tighter stops recommended into the announcements. NZD GDP q/q follows later at 22:45 UTC, a critical release for AUDNZD and NZDUSD given their active signal exposure.
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