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London Session Brief: JPY Strength and Equity Resilience Ahead of US CPI
Session Overview
The London session carries a cautious, two-speed character. JPY crosses are under pressure from risk-off flows in Antipodean currencies, while European and UK equity indices post broad gains despite underlying bearish trend structure. Volatility is elevated across crypto and metals as markets position ahead of the 12:30 UTC US CPI release.
Key Moves
- AVXUSD: Down -2.98% with extreme volatility. The move extends a three-bar bearish sequence on the daily chart.
- ADAUSD: Down -2.95%, also showing extreme volatility and a developing bearish structure.
- STOXX50: Up +0.97% to 6,316.0. Price action is firm even as the underlying trend read stays bearish, a notable divergence.
- DE40: Up +0.84% to 25,543.7, extending a four-bar bearish sequence despite the daily gain.
- XAUUSD: Up +0.59% to 4,341.66. Gold trades in a flat range but with extreme volatility readings, reflecting indecision rather than direction.
Notable Signals
No active trading signals are currently live. A pre-event lockdown is in effect for AUDJPY and NZDJPY until 12:30 UTC, blocking new entries ahead of the high and critical impact USD CPI data. Daily momentum readings show a confirmed bearish trend on both pairs, part of a synchronized Antipodean weakness against the yen, with NZD showing more intraday activity than AUD in this move. Separately, recent behavior on EURUSD and GBPCHF has favored trend continuation, while AUDCHF and EURGBP have tended toward reversals over the past 48 hours.
Risk Sentiment
Sentiment is mixed rather than clearly risk-on or risk-off. Antipodean currencies are soft against JPY, consistent with a defensive tone, yet major equity indices, including DE40, STOXX50, UK100, US500 and US30, are all higher on the day. USD currency strength readings lean firmly bullish against CHF and CAD, while gold holds a flat, high-volatility range rather than showing clear safe-haven demand. This divergence between equity strength and currency defensiveness bears watching into the CPI print.
Outlook
Attention now turns to the 12:30 UTC US inflation data, including Core CPI m/m and y/y and headline CPI, all flagged as high or critical impact. The pre-event lockdown on AUDJPY and NZDJPY signals markets are bracing for a volatility jump at the release. Traders should expect thinner liquidity and wider spreads into the print, with directional clarity likely only after the data and initial reaction settle.
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