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Asian Session Brief: Equities Bearish, NZD Leads Forex Ahead of US CPI
Session Overview
Asian trade carried a broadly risk-off undertone in equities, with seven major indices showing confirmed bearish daily trends and strong momentum behind them. Currency markets were more selective, led by New Zealand dollar strength against a weak Australian dollar, while gold edged higher on thin, quiet flow. Crypto majors were mixed, several posting gains despite still-bearish daily structure.
Key Moves
- UNIUSD: Up +1.72% amid extreme volatility, though the daily structure remains bearish for a fifth straight session.
- AVXUSD: Down -1.23%, extending a three-bar bearish run with extreme volatility readings.
- STOXX50: Down -0.68%, tracking the broader European equity weakness with a developing bearish trend.
- NZDUSD: Up +0.56%, the standout performer as NZD strength dominates forex flows this session, even as its own daily structure stays bearish.
- XAUUSD: Up +0.38% to 4,332.48. Gold advanced modestly on quiet, subdued safe-haven demand.
Notable Signals
The sole active signal is a DE40 sell at 0.76 confidence, entered at 25,385.1, currently near breakeven at 0.01R after reaching 0.31R in favor. A direction shift was also flagged on AUDJPY: the daily bearish trend stays intact even as four-hour momentum eased from strong to medium bearish. AUDJPY is additionally in an awareness phase tied to the upcoming US CPI release, with its confidence reading trimmed to 0.73, warranting caution on entry timing.
Risk Sentiment
Sentiment leans cautious rather than outright risk-off. Confirmed bearish trends across US30, US500, USTEC, DE40, AUS200, JP225 and UK100 point to defensive positioning in equities, yet gold's advance was modest and described as quiet, arguing against a strong flight to safety. The dollar itself is mixed: USDJPY and USDCHF trend bullish while EURUSD trends bearish, and the clearest directional signal comes from NZD strength against AUD weakness rather than a uniform dollar move.
Outlook
Attention turns to the GBP GDP m/m release at 06:00 UTC, forecast at 0.0% versus a prior 0.3%, which carries scope to move JPY and GBP crosses given the high-impact rating. Later, at 12:30 UTC, US CPI data (Core CPI m/m, Core CPI y/y, CPI m/m, CPI y/y) is rated critical and has already triggered an awareness phase on AUDJPY. Expect reduced conviction into the print, with the current bearish equity bias and NZD-led forex trend most likely to extend on a benign outcome.
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