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New York Session Brief: Risk Regime Shifts Favorable as JPY Dominates
Session Overview
The New York session on July 31 is defined by a clear risk regime shift from cautious to favorable, with JPY weakness emerging as the dominant macro driver. US equities are pushing higher while gold retreats sharply, and the USD is broadly softer against most major currencies, though complex cross-currents between USD and CHF activity complicate a clean risk-on read.
Key Moves
- XAUUSD: Down -1.25% to 4,051.76. Gold sold off sharply as risk appetite improved and safe-haven demand faded; gold is lower against all major crosses this session.
- BTCUSD: Down -2.73% to 62,932. Crypto broadly under pressure with BTC leading losses; ETH off -2.76% and BCHUSD down -4.28%, signaling risk rotation away from digital assets despite the broader equity rally.
- US500: Up +0.80% to 7,507.1. The S&P 500 leads US equity gains as the risk regime shift supports continuation of the bullish trend; US30 also up +0.61%.
- EURUSD: Up +0.06% to 1.15341. EUR holds its three-day bullish trend with extreme bullish D1 momentum intact; strategy intelligence confirms momentum as the preferred approach with a 69% win rate and 2.84 profit factor over 48 hours.
- USDJPY: Down -0.31% to 159.003. JPY intraday activity is extreme, making it the session's dominant macro signal; yen strength is broad-based across JPY crosses.
Notable Signals
One active signal is live: NZDUSD BUY at entry 0.58888, currently at 0.58927 with a confidence of 0.80 and an R of 0.05. The position is in early profit with MFE at 0.08R. Traders should note the system warning that NZD's own activity is below the active threshold, directional conviction here may be primarily USD-driven rather than NZD-specific. Stop loss data is unavailable for this signal; independently confirm SL placement before adding to or managing the position. EURCAD (5 consecutive bullish D1 bars, Grade A) and EURUSD (Grade A trending, 3 consecutive bars) remain the strongest structural setups in the forex space per market weather.
Risk Sentiment
Risk sentiment has shifted to risk-on with moderate conviction. US equities are advancing, gold is retreating, and commodity-linked currencies (AUD, NZD) are firmer against the USD. However, the simultaneous high activity in both USD and CHF introduces a notable divergence, safe-haven flows in CHF are running alongside USD softness, suggesting the market is not uniformly positioned. JPY weakness is the clearest expression of risk appetite this session.
Outlook
Heading into the close of the New York session and the end of the month, the risk-on bias appears intact but not without nuance. The JPY extreme activity warrants caution on any new JPY-cross entries given elevated intraday volatility. EURUSD and EURCAD remain the highest-quality structural setups for continuation. Crypto weakness diverging from equity strength is worth monitoring, if BTC fails to recover alongside equities, it may signal selective rather than broad risk appetite. Watch for any month-end USD flows that could distort price action in the final hours of trading.
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